Worlds A and B, to be exact.
It is March, but March of 2021, not 2010. Crises have broken out around the globe.
In Africa, a major war involving US forces appears imminent.
In the Near East, an aggressive nation makes its bid for regional hegemony.
In Europe, a major power throws its weight around with increasing belligerence.
In East Asia, another major power has declared a Maritime Exclusion Zone (MEZ) in a large, resource rich area; the MEZ will take effect at month’s end.
In the Western Hemisphere, a powerful insurgency threatens to topple a fragile democracy and install a repressive regime; the conflict has generated a significant, rapidly growing refugee problem — and the refugees are headed our way.
Most disturbingly, at three inland ports, massive explosions have occurred within hours of one another, killing or injuring hundreds of Americans.
The whole thing is reported, twice a day, by SNN: the Strategic News Network, replete with anchor person, reporters, commercials, and a signature phrase (“Strategies for Life”).
What’s next? A massive earthquake? An outbreak of zombies? The cancellation of American Idol? Only High Con, Low Con, and the Observer Controllers know for sure.
It’s SDME time at the Army War College.
The core curriculum is now behind us. Since the beginning of the academic year in August the students have marched through six courses: Strategic Thinking, Theory of War and Strategy, Strategic Leadership, National Security Policy and Strategy, Theater Strategy and Campaigning, and Joint Processes and Land Power Development. (Brief descriptions of each course are here.) Now comes the Strategic Decision Making Exercise (SDME).
According the war college web site, the SDME is “an experiential learning vehicle for USAWC students to apply the concepts, processes, methodologies, and knowledge gained earlier in the core curriculum. The exercise builds on the core courses and provides students the opportunity to distinguish the uniqueness of strategic level leadership and apply skills and competencies required of strategic leaders. A credible and complex virtual environment challenges students to use senior leadership skills and to apply and evaluate several interrelated strategic processes: the Interagency policymaking process, the Crisis Action Planning (CAP) process, the Multinational Coordination process, and the Resourcing process. Set in the future, SDME includes multiple crises (ranging from major combat operations to humanitarian assistance and stability operations, to domestic response, to terrorism and natural disasters) to stress these integrated strategic processes.”
Although this is my second year at the war college, because of other commitments last year it is my first opportunity to observe the SDME. I’m trying to make the most of it. With one exception, which I’ll describe at another time, I have no duties in the SDME and can therefore wander at will through all elements of the exercise. In future posts I’ll discuss specific aspects of the SDME, but here is what it looks like in general.
While most of the war college curriculum occurs in the twenty seminar rooms of Root Hall and the adjacent auditorium, Bliss Hall, the SDME takes place a few hundred yards away, in Collins Hall. Built in 1994, Collins Hall houses the Center for Strategic Leadership (CSL). The CSL does many things, but the most ambitious of these is the preparation and execution of the SDME, a six day practicum involving all 338 students and pretty much the entire faculty, as well as an impressive number of high powered “distinguished visitors.”
The students are divided into “cells” of between four and 21 students. Each cell represents a different component of the national security system, among them the major commands (e.g. Central Command and Strategic Command), the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, and the Departments of State and Homeland Security. Each cell is within a single room and with few exceptions its personnel can communicate with other cells only by email or phone. To maximize meaningful participation, the cells are spread among two “worlds” — Worlds A and B — that address the crises independently of one another.
By the way, to heighten a sense of realism the names of actual countries are used throughout, but for the most part I will omit them on my posts because this is the one really sensitive aspect of the SDME. It’s all too easy to for the mischievous, the paranoid, or the just plain idiotic to distort this notional exercise into real life preparation: “Did you know that at the Army War College they’re making plans for war with So-and-So?”
Controlling the exercise from above are senior faculty members who portray the President, the National Security Advisor, the Secretaries of State, Defense, and Homeland Security, and so on. Controlling it from below are a cast of characters from the CSL and several outside organizations who come here specifically to support the exercise. There are short notice media interviews with cameras rolling, tough questions, and snippets inserted into SNN broadcasts. There are congressional hearings with real members of Congress demanding answers — and not always nicely.
The SDME goes on for six days, three of which take place in March 2021, when the scenarios unfold, followed by a 60-day jump into May 2021, when they play out to resolution. During the jump, students change roles. The commander of AFRICOM may become the Senior Policy Adviser for Media Affairs, the Chief of Naval Operations becomes the NORTHCOM J3, and so on. Many students are cell leaders — the head of each notional organization — but no student has a leadership role in both halves of the exercise.
It all sounds impressive as hell, and it looks impressive too. That said, opinions of the SDME’s utility vary widely among the faculty and students. I’ll get to that in a future post as well.
Daniel E. Sutherland, A Savage Conflict: The Decisive Role of Guerrillas in the American Civil War (University of North Carolina Press)
